***NOTE: Updates after 2015 Es Season are no longer available.
Best Five Transatlantic Days of this season & Data Collection Methodology (2024)
2016 Long Haul Six Meter Es Season- Where did it go?
Fig. 2B Experimental 3+ HOP Seasonal Quality Factor Table (2023 Included in 2024 Es_Predict.xls)
Fig. 4B DERIVED SINGLE-HOP SEASONAL PROBABILITY TABLE (2023)
BASELINE 1-HOP RELATIVE PROBABILITY PLOT (Added in Es_Predict.xls vers 3.20+)
Fig. 7 2023 K1SIX Transatlantic Times Correlation Table
2016 K0GU Europe/N. Africa Times Correlation Table**
Peak F2 to Europe timing for Mutual Availability correlation
Cycle 23 6M F2 Compilation, SOME could have been via Es Linkage!
NOAA Time Lapse Progression of Solar Cycle 25
MS Excel Es_Predict.xls Utility for Summer 2024 Season
For those with Microsoft Excel, the Es_Predict Utility was developed to statistically assess the best times to operate for long-haul 6M Es DX based upon much of
the data in the above table. Although it is impossible to really predict when a long-haul opening may occur, it is possible to leverage upon those repeatable characteristics that occur day and time again:
SEASONAL and DIURNAL statistics. This is accomplished by using a composite SEASONAL probability model and (presently) up to 8 DIURNAL models for the user to choose from depending upon their path of interest.
Some models are updated on an annual basis. The result is a statistical probability calculation based upon both models that plots the probability vs. time for a given date. The output is based upon a
sliding time scale keyed to Local Solar Time at the path midpoint so that a station in the midwest could use an east coast diurnal model to obtain an assessment, if desired.
** Please note that this utility is specifically designed for Northern Hemisphere, mostly mid-latitude paths that are mostly sunlit! **
In addition to an attempt at prediction, the Utility includes a path analysis tool that indicates estimated ionospheric refraction points or ground landing zones with a projection out to 5 full hops+ for
those paths that are less than 5 hops, a KML file generator for use on Google Earth and a 50 MHz Es Single Hop Range calculator. Used with an understanding of the limitations based upon so many unknown
variables, the avid 6M DXer may find some value using this Utility.
This Macro driven utility was coded for MS Excel 97-2003 so that it is compatible with newer versions of Excel and has been tested on both the PC and MAC platforms. It will only partially run on OPEN
OFFICE freeware. It uses buttons and a friendly user interface. Feel free to give it a try. Your security settings must allow editing and Macros. Be sure to read the Help and Instructions section.
You may download the latest version of "Es_Predict" below.
Click here for examples of use for Eastern NA/ Far East and Other Extreme Range Path Analysis (Under Construction)
Download MS Excel Es_Predict for 2024 Season v. 3.37 Utility updated March 2024
2023 Multiple Source Averaged Temperate Zone Seasonal Probability Model presently used in 2024 Season Es_Predict.xls
FOUR METERS (70 Mhz) TRANSATLANTIC TESTS
2016 Updated 4 Meter Transatlantic Crossband Test Results
LINK TO THE Four Meters Website FOR MORE INFORMATION about this band
RADIO METEOR COUNTING REFERENCE MATERIAL ARCHIVES* & Custom SCRIPTs/USR files
I have found over the years that attempting to automatically count meteors via radio methods is particularly challenging. Although for intermittent periods I am
able to obtain useful data, these periods are short lived due to external power line noise causing reduced counts based upon local weather conditions, Sporadic E during the major and minor Es seasons
(higher frequencies of choice will reduce this), tropo and Aurora during certain periods of the year and of course- Lightning Detection! If the automated meteor counter is online and if I am available
and aware that "environmentals" are causing false counts then I attempt to manually delete those hourly periods. Otherwise it's garbage in = garbage out (GIGO). Furthermore, I believe that obtaining true,
scientifically valid meteor counts for the amateur is next to impossible. Sometimes double or even triple counts+ will occur from head and trail detection and the diffraction pattern from a rising and
fading overdense event. Then finally there is the issue of isolating the true meteor returns from aircraft scatter (a much slower rate of Doppler). Try this at your own risk and see for yourself!
K1SIX- Jan & Feb 2014 WG2XPN/B 70.005 MHz Radio Meteor Counting Test Results
K1SIX- Jan 2014 Atlanta 67.250 MHz Radio Meteor Counting Test Results
Estimated impact of noise degradation on Sporadic Meteor Counts
Justifications of Offsets for Meteor Scatter Communications
An earlier Radio Meteor Counting Project I was involved with in 1999
175.250 MHz Underdense Radio Meteor Profile Tests (1999)
VIRGO- Meteor Sky View (Requires Java)
HSMS Pingjockey Frames (VIRGO Requires Java)
USE THE PULL-DOWN MENU BELOW TO VIEW PAST SUCCESSFUL RADIO METEOR COUNTS and REFERENCE DIURNALS
The results obtained are Path of interest, Location and Prevailing Radiant sensitive!
6M DIGITAL, WSJT & EME INFORMATION (UNDER CONSTRUCTION EXPECT CHANGES)
WSJT Home Page by K1JT (Please RTFM!)
ZL2IFB FT8 Operating Guide- A MUST READ! Thanks Gary!
Some useful FT8 observations and recommendations from Steve, VE7SL [Caution!! There is NO published sequencing standard at this time!]
31 October 2024 K1SIX 6M WSJT Range Results and Activity Growth Experienced (Separate breakouts for MS and ALL Prop Modes)
K1SIX 6M WSJT EME RESULTS. Any HEARD ONLY are a potential QSO!
K1SIX 50 MHz WSJT FT-DX5000MP Interface Used. HARDWARE PTT ONLY!!
K1SIX 6M INTERFERENCE COMPLAINTS and INTERFERENCE EXPERIENCED with ANALYSIS (Under Construction)
W7GJ TRACKER MAY ALSO BE USED for SOLAR ELEVATIONS
W7GJ EME PAGE WITH LINKS TO RESOUTCES
THE BLACKLIST- Open minded ham radio at it's finest. For you: NO QSO ONE YEAR!
USEFUL ONLINE PROPAGATION RESOURCES
Aurora Focused "Cockpit" (FRAMES)- Aurora Robot frame may require MANUAL Refresh!
IPS Global Real Time FoF2 Map (0° Long. Centered)
IPS Global Real Time FoF2 Map (180° Long. Centered)
NOAA- Space Weather Enthusiasts DASHBOARD
NOAA- Radio Communications DASHBOARD
ACTIVE Ionograms from multiple sources- SORTED by GRID LOCATOR
SPACE WEATHER MONITOR
SolarHAM by VE3EN
Solar Terrestrial Activity Report
CQ Six-50 MHz DX News (Tnx Matt OZ6OM)
RADIO RELATED LINKS and REFERENCE Material
A Model for Diurnal Effects in Multi-hop Six-Meter Es, Kennedy, 2001
SOME Jim Kennedy, K6MIO/KH6 papers are HERE but becoming difficult to find online
Es Papers from Mel Wilson, W2BOC and WA5IYX are archived here (Tnx WA5IYX)
Main WA5IYX Site with numerous archives
Mid-Latitude Sporadic-E- A Review (Michael Hawk Nov. 2001)
N3DB- Propagation Archives
Nice Find and Map Grid Square Utility (Tnx K7FRY)
N5SIX Backscatter Planner MS Excel Spreadsheet
PERSONAL INTEREST LINKS
FOR DOG LOVERS ONLY
Click here for AN 8-BALL HANDICAPPING EXPERIMENT
Hillsboro (NH) Independent Pool League Site
Queen City Pool League (QCPL) Around the World Site
EBOOK: History of Hillsborough, NH 1735-1921
Best 73 es Good VHF DXing,
Bob Mobile, K1SIX (ex-WA1OUB)
Hillsboro, NH 03244 USA
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